Last year, the outbreak of avian flu sent prices of Eggs and Turkey soaring just as shoppers prepared for the Holidays. However, this year, the price of Eggs has plummeted by 9.2% from its peak in January 2023. Overall, Effective and Everyday prices again increased moderately over the month but there is still rising inflation in meat categories like Beef and the ongoing strained supplies of Cocoa and Sugar mean Holiday Candy prices are up 6.4% this year compared to last. Read on to discover more of our Holiday insights.
Inflation Snapshot
There has been a slight uptick in both Effective and Everyday prices, with a growth of 15 and 16 basis points, respectively. Notably, However, we have observed a significant fall in the Effective prices in the Home Cleaning Products and Meat & Seafood categories across some retailers.
Department Highlights
CPG inflation has recently dipped to +2%, breaking its stable trend at +3% sustained for the past 7 weeks. Additionally, Non-Edible inflation has seen a 1% decline since the end of October, settling at +5%. However, it’s noteworthy that this figure remains notably higher than both Edible and Perishable categories.
Edible inflation experienced a decline, reaching +2% by mid-October. This shift was notably driven by the General Food category. The inflation rate within the General Food category, which includes ambient food items, dropped to +4%. Notably, the Alcohol and Frozen categories also registered declines in inflation in recent weeks, contributing to overall downward trend.
Perishable inflation has stabilized at +1% over the last 3 weeks. Bakery inflation has exhibited a consistent downward trend, decreasing from its peak of +5% during the week commencing October 22, 2023, to +2% as of the week commencing December 3, 2023. Meanwhile, the inflation rate for Meat experienced a notable surge, jumping to +4% in mid-November.
Egg prices experienced a peak in January 2023, influenced by the avian flu, leading to a surge of 9.0% within a mere 7 weeks. However, since then, they have witnessed a significant 9.3% decline.
Conventional Eggs bore the brunt of this fluctuation, with their Effective prices plummeting by 41.4% since January’s peak. In contrast, Organic and Pasture Raised eggs weathered the avian flu impact more resiliently, experiencing less influence due to their smaller size. Notably, Holiday Candy prices have surged by 6.4% since last year, fueled by strained supplies of Cocoa and Sugar. However, there is a silver lining as some retailers have increased promotions, effectively mitigating some of the price rises in the holiday confectionery aisle.
Inflation persists in the Meat categories, notably with Beef soaring to a significant +8% year-over-year. Meanwhile, Candy inflation has experienced a notable 4% decline within the past five weeks; however, it still stands at +8% year-over-year.
Global Trends
Inflation has fallen by 1% in the US, UK and Greece over the last 4 weeks. Germany’s rate of overall CPG inflation is now +3% y-o-y as it has fallen from +6% 4 weeks ago.
Regardless of external market conditions, the right combination of omnichannel competitive intelligence and Pricing Science can help you increase your margin, maintain consistent revenue growth, and increase customer loyalty.
- Leverage omnichannel comp monitoring and Machine-learning powered Product Linking to track your product catalog against like-item competitive offerings and respond to competitors’ online and store-level tactics.
- Use Price Image to objectively identify the items that most directly influence customer perception, then optimize these items to increase trips and satisfaction while defending margin across the store.
- Balance short-term profits with long-term success by optimizing prices toward Price Image and boosting trip frequency and share-of-wallet.
Click here to request access to the full report and learn how Engage3’s Price Optimization and Competitive Intelligence solutions can help you fuel sustainable growth in any market.
